Nicolas Jarry vs Joao Fonseca Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Recent second serve performance: Over the last six months, Jarry won 49.03% of points on their second serve, slightly edging out Fonseca, who won 48.39%.
• Consider the return game statistics: Fonseca is slightly ahead, winning 43.56% of second serve return points, compared to Jarry's 42.09%.
• When it comes to returning first serves, Fonseca again leads with 24.8% compared to Jarry's 23.03%, hinting at a possible advantage in this match-up.
• Under pressure, Jarry seems more resilient, saving 66.53% of breakpoints faced, while Fonseca saves 60.07%.
• In the last year, Fonseca's overall match win rate is significantly higher at 72.06% compared to Jarry's 40.91%.
• Surface preferences reveal Jarry's strength on clay, with a 64% win rate, while Fonseca performs best on hard courts, boasting a 76% win rate.
• What impact does the level of opponent have on these players? Jarry has faced higher-ranked opponents with an average rank of 152.64, while Fonseca's opponents have had a lower average rank of 108.43.
• Deciding set performance offers interesting insights: Fonseca has won 59% of these close contests, whereas Jarry has only won 42%.
• In terms of breakpoint conversion, Jarry has a minor edge, converting 28.81% of opportunities, slightly higher than Fonseca's 27.45% conversion rate.

Editorial Prediction (July 4, 2025, UTC):

Analyzing both players' recent performances, we see that Fonseca shows a stronger overall win rate at 72.06% over the past year, particularly excelling on hard courts. This might give Fonseca an upper hand if the match is played on this surface.

Jarry's resilience under pressure, reflected in a higher breakpoint save percentage, suggests they might be tough to overcome in critical moments. However, Fonseca's superior return stats and their ability to win a high percentage of deciding sets could tilt the outcome in their favor.

Considering these factors, coupled with Fonseca's experience against higher-ranked opponents, Fonseca appears better positioned. Thus, Fonseca is most likely to win this upcoming tennis match.